(Bosco Mutarambirwa - New Jersy) - Pierre Nkurunziza is flying back to Burundi: Let the party start
Will Nkurunziza get shot in mid-air like Habyarimana and Ntaryamira?
Unlike Paul Kagame who is feared by his people, Pierre Nkurunziza is popular. The majority of Burundians love him. This is undeniable. Only way to easily get rid of Nkurunziza is kill him - like Ndadaye or Habyarimana - but then get ready for bloodshed. Only reason you didn't have so much bloodshed after deposing Ndadaye is because he had not been in power for 10 years like Nkurunziza has.
What demographic group has been turning out to recently staged protests on the streets of Bujumbura lately? The inner city homeless, the students, street gangs. But what about the majority of civil servants, lawyers, doctors, engineers, peasants? If the later category is still loyal to Pierre Nkurunziza - then why mount a coup against him? Why not organize and prioritize peaceful negotiations with Nkurunziza's camp to see if he can be convinced to give up? Clearly, Nkurunziza is not opposed to talks; in fact, he just had one in Tanzania interrupted by the news of a coup.
You can blame Nkurunziza all you want but ignoring the ambiguity in Burundi's constitution is simply wrong.
Nkurunziza may reconsider his decision to run for a third term if he thinks it is the right thing to do to keep his decade-long legacy alive. But nobody can for force him to reconsider if he truly believes he not violating Burundi's constitution. Only he will make that determination.
Another alternative to consider doing what Namibians did: Their constitution had loopholes -- so they let Sam Nujoma run for a 3rd term after which he peacefully left power. I can't think of any African country that's more peaceful than Namibia today. What would it cost Burundi to let Nkurunziza run for a (contested) 3rd and final term? He feels strongly about being within his constitutional rights by running for another term.